=== Even *I* Wouldn't Pay THAT ===

As predicted here last week, Seibu will post Daisuke Matsuzaka for the 2007 MLB season. 

Seibu's language is not final, but its decision is. 

Consider the contrary scenario, the one where Seibu refuses to post Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Note that this would be precisely the equivalent of losing a 1-year, $35,000,000 arbitration award to Dice-K, with free agency certain after the year.  Seibu would have to (1) pay Matsuzaka's immense salary, plus they would (2) forfeit the $20-30m posting fee that is theirs for the asking.

Would YOU pay $35,000,000 for one year of any player?  Neither would Seibu.  So, he'll be posted.  The usual excellent SportSpot thread here.

Why hasn't this been the case in past years, with past players?  The posting fees have not been $20-30m.  …and last year, Seibu did not spend (in effect) huge money on Matsuzaka; they got one more year out of him, and now they get the full 100% posting fee at the last moment.  Shrewd.

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=== The Line Starts Here, Dept. ===

The 2004-05 Seattle blog-land arguments over Matsuzaka seem a loooooong time ago. 

D-O-V's laughable 2004 position, that Dice-K was one of the 5 best pitchers in the major leagues, is one more controversial D-O-V position (like that on Snelling's power) that has quietly faded to "oh well whatever nevermind."

Now, practically everybody (scout and sabermetrician alike) agrees that Matsuzaka pitches at the level of an MLB All-Star.  No problem there.

His proponents (like me) suspect you're talking about the frontrunner for the AL 2007 Cy Young award.  Do we have one last Matsuazaka "hype" in us at D-O-V?  Or is "Cy Young Frontrunner" the mainstream now too?

Heh.

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=== MLB Comparables ===

Daisuke Matsuzaka's best ML comps are this pitcher and this pitcher, but Dice-K is even better than both of those guys, even at their best.

With all three pitchers, you are talking about the following attributes:

1) An ARRAY of breaking pitches, any of which can strike out the hitter

2) The preference to pitch backwards, to get hitters out with the breaking stuff

3) Lively 92-mph fastball

4) Outstanding control of the fastball and good control of the offspeed stuff

5) Pitch ahead in the count, insane K/BB ratios

6) "Surgeon" demeanor on the mound and great intelligence (don't underestimate IQ in the center of the field)

7) Similar body types, pretty much, with very active lower bodies if not drop-and-drive mechanics

Very few MLB pitchers truly use 4-5 pitches to good effect, and even fewer use each of them to devastating effect.

But Matsuzaka is even better than the two borderline HOF'ers listed.  He has more pitches, and the pitches move more weirdly.  Cone's money pitch was the slider, Mussina's the knuckle curve … but what is Matsuaka's money pitch?  He's got several legit feature weapons.  I think I like his forkball better than anything else.

Matsuzaka's stamina also underlines his general mastery of his mechanics and the pitching art.

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=== Can He Keep It Up?  He Won't HAVE To ===

Matsuaka's remarkable ability to withstand 140-pitch workloads stem from the Japanese pitching motion.  For a discussion of that, see this link, the mechanics section. 

From an aikido standpoint, the NPB pitching motion exploits the ten chi principle to give the arm extra connection to the CG (thereby babying the arm).  With this beautiful and harmonious motion, the CG and the shoulder axis does more of the work, and the arm does less of the work.

The basic ideas behind the ten chi NPB motion:

1.  Float the weight with a high knee kick that raises the CG - as the hands raise a bit (ten chi 'floating' movement is not the same as "standing tall" to get onto the centerline) 

2.  Extreme weight sink as the hands also sink to express the ki intentionality (heaven-to-earth movement)

3.  Hip crooks forward as torso leans back towards CF — to synch the weight with the path of the ball in backstroke, and to involve the shoulderline more, and the arm less

4.  Circular movement of both hands together as back knee compresses extremely — this organizes the extremities logically with the CG

5.  Extreme "splay" of all 4 limbs, glove and lead shoe flying towards hitter in harmony as "blossoming" movement begins

6.  Nice drive down centerline, head and eyes rock-steady all the way through

7.  Easy, comfortable deceleration with all body parts harmonizing

Matsuzaka, used to 130-, 140-pitch workloads as a matter of course, will now see 100-, 110-pitch workloads.  Tell me that won't sharpen his performances.  His arm will feel fresh as a daisy, absent that last set of killer presses each workout.

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=== And If You'll Order Now, We'll Include Two Turbo Years Free ===

I didn't expect it to become a controversial idea, but D-O-V assures you that seasoned international pitchers hold an advantage over hitters, due to their novelty effect. 

Rookie pitchers, those who are still learning, that's one thing, their debuts.  But take a star pitcher who has completely mastered his craft, and throw him at hitters who have never before seen him, and it's an overmatch.  Especially when you're talking about a star pitcher who uses an alien style.

Here is a discussion as to why.

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=== Just For Fun ===

Here is a videolink with several Matsuzaka pitches.  Here and here are a couple of humor pieces.

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=== If You Have To Ask The Price, You Can't Afford It ===

(Edit to add, Dr. Naka pointed out that (1) posted NPB players are under 6-year obligation just like ML rookies, which you knew, and (2) legally an NPB player must have more salary in his first 3 years, than the club posted for him, which you didn't know.

So if Seibu gets (say) $25m posting fee, Matsuzaka must make (say) $26-30m / 3 years.  That makes it fairly easy to zero Dice-K's cost.

Remember too that the posting fee (1) does not come out of Seattle payroll, and (2) is a fee that covers 6 years' worth of services, if you are figuring total annual cost.)

So Matsuzaka may be the biggest "splash landing" alien invasion since Lefty Grove was finally sold to the majors at 25.  There is simply no telling what he might do to the American League.

Of course the Mariners SHOULD pay Matsuzaka the big money, and of course Nintendo is going to be interested in paying that money.  You remember when Gillick and Lincoln did not want to pay Sasaki a mega-closer salary?  When it hit an impasse, Yamauchi-san stepped in and said "give him what he wants."  He'll do the same here, within reason.  Does reason exist on Planet Boras?

…………………………………………

They have no place to spend the money other than in the rotation.  This would be the wrong time to wring hands about risk.  THIS pitcher will not come at "comfortable" dollars or "comfortable" years.  THIS pitcher, you pay what it takes, or you continue to go to war without the marquee pitchers that your opponents are certainly using against you.

If you're even going to start talking about sensible risk/reward, just move on to the next subject.  Don't even start the Matsuzaka discussion.  Go for Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito, or better yet, just an Esteban Loaiza type, or best yet, just leave the payroll money on the table, go 81-81 but with an efficient $/win ratio.

You insist on "sensible" years or "sensible" dollars for Matsuzaka, you're not going to get him.  You're going to fill your two SP slots with "sensible" signings with Esteban Loaiza, and you're going to win the battles but lose the war.

The M's need to lose the battles over contracts on their two ace SP's, and win the war. 

You get what you pay for,

Dr D